The ongoing WRC 2016 World Robotics Conference in Yizhuang, Beijing has added a fire to the “robot feverâ€. The excited practitioners, the excited audience, and the high-skilled experts, the robot industry is generally bullish due to the favor of the Chinese market. However, the technology is seriously inadequate, the application is difficult, the price is high, the blind investment, the concept player spoiler... This somewhat sci-fi ahead market still has intractable diseases such as "indigestion".
Serious technical shortageForums, competitions, exhibitions and other major venues are in the market. This World Robotics Conference shows the popularity of current robots. Among the data and opinions summarized in the forum, industry experts expressed their expectation of robot development, and more described the problem of insufficient technology.
Since its birth in 1959, robots have been used in a variety of applications, especially in the automotive industry. In recent years, they have been well used in rehabilitation, defense, space exploration, and natural exploration.
Ding Han, dean of the School of Mechanical Science and Engineering at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, believes that there is a big gap between the reality of robots and people's expectations. He analyzed that most industrial robots work in some structured environments, and the online sensing capabilities are relatively poor. Service robots can only perform some simple tasks at present, and special robots need to perform specific tasks through remote operation.
Many practitioners compare the current robot industry to a mobile phone more than a decade ago, and believe that the current technological development of robots will be as intelligent as the mobile phone era. However, this view is still subject to certain doubts.
Wang Wei, a professor of mechanical aerospace engineering at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, believes that the robot industry is much more difficult than the mobile phone industry. The technology involved is more comprehensive, not only simple sensing, but also driving this key technology. Today, the mobile phone industry chain is showing results in a short period of time, but it is not necessarily good to achieve a short-sighted view on robots. “Robots are a big system with driving, sensing and interaction. It takes a lot of scope and energy to do this research. So in terms of capital, manpower and venue, it is more than money and resources for mobile phones and interconnections. The demand is much higher," he added.
In fact, how to make robots and humans work together is the current challenge, including too many technical problems to break. However, the current application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is still in the laboratory stage, and it is difficult to judge when it can solve the application problem.
It is technically difficult to achieve high standards while also making domestic robots slightly inferior. During the World Robotics Congress, Beijing Business Daily reporter learned that many domestic robots, especially industrial robots, are mostly imported from abroad. At the exhibition site, the Beijing Business Daily reporter also found that although some of the domestic robots are made in China, the logos of Swiss ABB (one of the four major families of industrial robots) are still conspicuous. Yaskawa Shougang employees said that Yaskawa Shougang is a Sino-Japanese joint venture, and the technology of robots is dominated by Yaskawa Electric (one of the four major families of industrial robots).
Large-scale convention and exhibition competitions have become more and more frequent in recent years, and market education is the urgent need of the entire industry. However, compared to watching these robots that can sing and dance, the various industries are more concerned about how to apply their true capabilities in the next step.
So far, the field in which robots are widely used is in the automotive industry. The research of the automotive industry can be found that the three characteristics of mass production, standardization, and informationization have led to the rapid application of robots. Li Boji, deputy chief engineer of Guangzhou CNC Equipment Co., Ltd. analyzed that the electronics industry, home appliance industry, furniture industry and building materials industry have used robots directly. If the sensing technology, computer technology and communication technology are solved, the demand for robots in all walks of life will even exceed the automotive industry.
However, looking at the various application scenarios of the robot industry, it is the most difficult to form a service-oriented robot that is close to the consumer. A spectator attending the conference told the Beijing Business Daily that these robots all look very similar, giving people a feeling of being awkward and not communicating smoothly. "I feel that most robots only have some simple performances, just imitating human movements. It is quite interesting to bring children to see. However, some robots are made like real people, but they make me somewhat uncomfortable." Speaking.
Zvi Shiller, president of the Israel Robotics Association, believes that there is no absolute demand for robots in this market, which is a challenge that the industry needs to deal with. Some people are very scared about the robots walking around. Many times the behavior of robots is unpredictable. These are the issues that need to be considered when launching products.
In fact, some robots have entered the role of shopping guides, such as shopping malls, banks, and office space. However, companion robots, educational robots and other products are not good to sell. An exhibitor said that the current product is still in the display stage and has not yet entered the market.
A key factor in the low level of market penetration is price. The Beijing Business Daily reporter learned that the price of these robots is very eye-popping, and some simple robot toys will cost thousands of dollars, not to mention those security and industrial robots. Beijing Business Daily reporter learned from many corporate staff that the price of commercial robots is still difficult to come down. The price of the most basic model of the Falcon UAV is 100,000 yuan. The price of the security robot of Haier subsidiary Claude is also between 100,000 and 100,000 yuan. The staff of Fetch roboTIcs admits that the company's storage and handling robot combination is currently priced at 1.4 million yuan, and only when the mass production in China reaches a certain scale can you expect a substantial price cut.
Blind investment in the marketIn recent years, both the state and local governments, as well as the business community, and even the financial community have given great support and investment in robot research, including the emergence of thousands of robot companies in these years, many cities in China. In the industrial park with robots, the number of employees should be growing at an exponential level.
However, the hot scene brought about by this growth hides the worry. There is a saying in the industry that “first-class enterprises do standards, second-rate enterprises do brands, and third-rate enterprises make products.†Now most enterprises and entrepreneurs are rushing to promote product development, but they ignore the standard problem, so let this itself be in its infancy. The industry at the stage is very blind.
A few weeks ago, a robot-related project under Google was cancelled due to the inability to meet high enough standards. This also proves that it is a wrong behavior if the company does not complete the R&D of the product and put it on the market. Robots must meet relevant standards as areas of particularly high technical content, but this is not so easy to solve.
Zvi Shiller believes that robots are not the Internet. Sometimes the industry is spoiled by the Internet revolution. The Internet makes it easier to develop robots. In fact, this is a software-driven mechanical system, and such software is not good. Need to work under different conditions, can't do it in a short time. In addition, the failure rate is very low, and if the safety and quality of the product is not high, it will lead to casualties, especially in service robots that need to interact with people.
What makes a company passionate is not only the prospect of the market, but also the fuel of capital. One of the early benefits of the market is that everyone has the opportunity to become a dark horse and lead the industry. This is why many investors are more willing to support small businesses and entrepreneurial teams. Therefore, the birth of thousands of companies is not sensational.
However, robots need a long time to fund research and development to mature the technology. It often takes three or four years, and maybe five years and ten years will not have much return. This is for investors. Not worthwhile. Many concept products are products to meet the needs of this aspect of the joint venture.
On the other hand, some well-known large companies are also investing heavily in robots. In May of this year, Midea Group acquired the German robot manufacturer KUKA Group by voluntary tender offer, which is expected to pay no more than about 29.2 billion yuan. The US said that the robot will be a new path for the company to expand its business.
"The industry of robots should be a big investment, slow-acting, and high-risk industry, not just the problem of burning money, not to look at the robot industry like the Internet industry." Sun Zheng Capital Managing Director Sun Zheng believes that capital is a tool Just like any tool, it can produce the negative effects of destructive growth, and it can also produce a positive effect. Basic research should be based on curiosity as the initial starting point, rather than racking your brains to think about how to commercialize. The job of the investor is to see the point of helping the company commercialize and find the application products in the society. It should not only think of cashing in a few years.
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