The largest power shortage in the country this winter and next spring is about 40 million kilowatts

On the 30th, the forecast report issued by the China Electricity Council (CEC) on its official website shows that the overall power supply and demand situation in the country is tight in the winter, next spring, and the power gap in local areas is likely to increase, and the tension between supply and demand is even more tense. It is estimated that the biggest power gap in the country this winter and next spring will be 30 million to 40 million kilowatts.

CEC has announced that in the past three quarters, the country’s electricity demand was generally strong. Among them, the electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry increased month after month after the Chinese New Year. The average daily electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry has exceeded 7 billion for six consecutive months. Kilowatt hours.

The year-on-year decrease in thermal power investment is worth noting. While electricity demand is booming across the country, thermal power and wind power investment in power investment have seen negative growth year-on-year; and the new production, new start-up and ongoing construction of thermal power as the main power generation in China have continued to decrease. Small, CEC said that this will seriously affect the balance of power supply and demand in the future. According to the report, during the first three quarters of the year, the country’s infrastructure construction capacity increased by 49.62 million kilowatts, a decrease of 2.24 million kilowatts year-on-year. In the first three quarters of the year, the nationwide thermal power started with a new scale of 12.62 million kilowatts. By the end of September, the scale of thermal power projects under construction was 67.55 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 13.38 million kilowatts and 17.85 million kilowatts respectively.

The CEC announced that thermal power companies in the provinces of Central and Northeast China still suffered large losses. From January to August, the electric power industry's sales profit margin was 3.5% (including thermal power business sales profit ratio was only 1.5%), which was the lowest among all major upstream and downstream industries. The weak profitability and low return rate have affected the power industry. Secure supply and sustainable development capabilities.

Local gap or increase this winter For the fourth quarter, CEC expects that the country's electricity consumption will continue to maintain a steady growth trend. The increase in the size of new thermal power plants, the unbalanced distribution of newly installed power plants, and the decline in coal quality lead to an increase in unplanned shutdowns. Affected by the factors, the overall power supply and demand situation in the country is tight, and some regions remain tight. At the same time, external supply factors such as climate, incoming water, and coal supply have a negative impact on the balance of power supply and demand. This may cause increased power gaps in local areas. The tension between supply and demand is even more tense. The biggest power gap in the country this winter and next spring is 30 million to 40 million kilowatts.

They also called for the launch of coal-fired linkage in the face of the upcoming peak winter electricity demand. The China United Electric Power Corporation proposes to guarantee the supply of coal for winter; accelerate the approval of construction of a number of power grid projects to solve the coexistence of "electricity power" and "electricity shortage". And it is recommended that coal-fired linkage be started on schedule.

According to CEC, in recent years, the institutional contradictions of “market coal and planned electricity” have been outstanding. In April and June of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusted the online price and sales price of electricity in some provinces, but the electricity price gap is still relatively large, and thermal power companies are large. The area loss has seriously affected the industry's production and development. At present, under the conditions that the reform of electricity price system is not yet in place and the competitive electricity market has not yet been established, the coal-electricity linkage mechanism is still an effective measure to solve the contradiction between coal and electricity. Therefore, it is recommended that the coal-electricity linkage mechanism should be started on schedule and linkage should be put in place. At the same time, we must continue to improve this mechanism.