In the past one or two years, the development of LED technology and the market has been very fast, and the word "LED" has become hot. Regardless of whether it is at the government level or at the enterprise level, LEDs have received extraordinary attention. The positive effects of macroeconomic policies have promoted the great development of the industry and inevitably caused the phenomenon of overheated investment. The new plant is put into production, the old factory is expanding, and the traditional industry is infiltrated. This has advantages and disadvantages for the development of the industry. How can the LED industry benefit from the disadvantages and develop healthily?
Industrial environment "macroscopically good microscopic difference"
National policies have been successively introduced, and the industrial development environment has continued to improve. Formulate a development roadmap to implement the policy.
He Kailuo: China is the world's first producer and consumer of lighting appliances. The country's series of policies have made LED lighting popular among the people. Leaders at all levels have used LED as an emerging industry to adjust the industrial structure and transform the growth mode, so that China will quickly become an LED. The largest market for applications forms the most exciting and inspiring policy and market environment for our LED people. LED will rise in the hands of Chinese people. This is a historical opportunity for a hundred years.
An Guoyu: The LED industry is essentially characterized by the duality of technical labor, which is especially suitable for China's national conditions. Under the guidance of macroeconomic policies, the LED industry will show rapid growth in both input and demand. A large influx of funds and huge market demand will drive industrial upgrading and technological innovation. The market is in the era of the Warring States. The final result of fierce competition in the market is that there will be several internationally competitive links in all aspects of the industrial chain. Leading enterprises in China, China will surely become the vanguard of the development of the world LED industry.
Liang Bingwen: The industrial environment for the development of LED lighting in China should be said to be “a macroscopically good and a microscopically poorâ€. The so-called "macro-good" refers to the fact that the LED lighting industry is in line with the basic national policy of "energy saving, environmental protection" and the global hotspots, so it has been highly valued by the central government and governments at all levels, and has become a hot spot for investment promotion. The so-called "microscopic difference" refers to the lack of clear ideas and roadmaps for industrial development. The government's support is difficult to implement, and the industry is still struggling in the “mudâ€, including the formulation of relevant standards, quality inspection and supervision, major product planning for industrial development, key to technological development, and personnel training.
Yu Binhai: At present, China's LED industry development environment is the best. China's follow-up policies and state-level plans have been successively introduced, which has created a highly advantageous industrial development environment for the development of the LED industry and promoted the rapid development of China's LED industry in the past one or two years.
Chen Hesheng: The current policy environment provides multi-faceted and multi-level support for the development of the LED industry, and the enthusiasm of local governments exceeds the enthusiasm of the central government. To some extent, LED has become a local government in attracting investment and industrial planning. One of the most fashionable and hottest industries in the world. A phenomenon brought about by all the local industries, such as street lamps, flat displays, and lights, as long as they can be linked to LEDs, is also included in the "industry foundation" or "development results" of the local LED industry.
The development of the domestic LED industry to the present, the relevant government departments, especially at the national level, in the macro-policy, facing the LED industry, now more important is not further policy support, but should be more risk warning. Because, whether in the upstream, midstream, or downstream of the LED industry, whether in the investment field, technology field, or engineering aftermath, a considerable degree of risk accumulation has been formed.
Author review
Good policy to implement
From the national medium and long-term scientific and technological development planning, to the information industry "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", to the electronic information industry adjustment and revitalization plan, etc., the LED industry has been explicitly included in the strategic emerging industries in the new era, for the development of the LED industry. It has created an industrial development environment with comparative advantages. As Yu Binhai, the deputy general manager of Foshan Guoxing Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., said that although the Chinese government started the semiconductor lighting plan later than Japan, the United States, the European Union and other developed countries, China's follow-up policies and state-level plans have been introduced successively, promoting The rapid development of China's LED industry. At the same time, we also noticed that the improvement at the macro level does not mean that the “micro level†is operational. The development of China's LED industry should pay full attention to the phenomenon of "macro-good micro-poor". In terms of policies, we must formulate operational rules and procedures to implement government support. Pay sufficient attention to the formulation of relevant standards, the planning of major products, and the focus of technology development and personnel training.
Investment overheating "shuffle" soon
Investment is blind and the industry is facing shuffling. The pressure of follow-up development of enterprises is high, and low-key and pragmatic can win.
An Guoyu: In the recent period, the increase in investment and the rapid expansion of the industrial chain will inevitably lead to the upgrading of the LED industry and industry segmentation. In general, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. At present, China's LED industry has been in a mixed situation, and the situation of the masses is divided. Like any industry, the LED industry will certainly have a process of reshuffling and survival of the fittest. It is believed that LED-related enterprises will develop in an orderly and healthy manner according to market rules, and the LED industry will become an important strategic new industry in China.
He Kailuo: LED as an energy-saving industry has been highly concerned and valued by governments and enterprises at all levels, making the LED industry as strong as it is, and it is fierce and unstoppable. The country has a whirlwind-like investment boom, and in the eyes of the whirlwind, the chicken feathers are in the sky, and even the dogs and cats can ascend to heaven. However, investors have a lot of blindness, do not implement the scientific development concept, do not understand the semiconductor blindly on the LED extension, do not understand the blindness of LED lighting, do not understand the road lighting blindly on the LED street lights, 90% of these enterprises are in the cyclone outer ring, It will be very tragic to fall. And blindly investing a lot of manpower, material and financial resources, consuming a lot of energy, wasting a lot of resources, it is heartbreaking. As an old science and technology worker with a conscience, I have been persuading companies not to blindly go to LED street lights for several years. Xiamen is still on more than 30. I think this is because the government has misled the abnormal state of the formation of enterprises, and it is generally arrogant and quick-minded. It is hoped that governments at all levels can calmly guide the scientific, healthy and orderly development of the LED industry.
Li Mantie: At present, both the national policy level, the market demand level, and the capital market investment level are positive for the LED industry development, which reflects the LED industry's position as a strategic emerging industry. Recently, the LED industry has shown signs of rapid growth and overheated investment. I believe that as long as it is an enterprise-level investment behavior, especially listed companies have relatively sound investment evaluation and decision-making mechanisms, they should be market behaviors and risks can be controlled.
China's LED industry needs to have a huge momentum to overwhelm foreign competitors. The rapid expansion of China's LED industry can rapidly increase the volume of the entire industry, and the quantity is qualitative, which makes foreign competitors discouraged.
Yu Binhai: Recently, many large companies have invested in the LED field, especially LED upstream chips and downstream applications. The expansion of various enterprises in the industrial chain has accelerated industrial agglomeration and enhanced the supporting capacity of the industry, thereby enhancing the manufacturing competitiveness of China's LED industry. However, in the recent favorable national macro policy situation, it is necessary to consider the overheating of LED investment. Although LED is a high-tech, the downstream entry threshold is low. Although some companies that have entered the LED industry now have strong capital, they are not engaged in the LED industry, lacking core technology and can only target the low-end market. At the same time, the LED industry has high patent technology requirements, and they are inevitably inferior and passive in participating in international competition. Recently, some large foreign companies have also entered the Chinese mainland, which is a huge threat to domestic chip companies lacking core patent technology, and may be eliminated or merged in the market competition. In addition, there is still no sound technical standard established in China. If there is no effective policy guidance and restrictions, there may be overcapacity and oversupply in the future, resulting in market confusion, which is not conducive to the healthy development of China's LED industry and the improvement of technology.
Chen Hesheng: At present, a considerable part of the domestic investment impulse is more the combination of the local government's political impulses and the company's low-cost asset expansion impulses, especially in some projects with great influence. Individual projects, in the eyes of the industry, even like a beautiful soap bubble, everyone knows that the bubble will break at any time, or like a balloon that is blown up, if you blow a little more, you will immediately Broken, a better ending, is slowly leaking, the balloon may be safer.
The blasting or leaking of the balloon itself does not necessarily cause serious damage to the development of the domestic LED industry. The key point is that in the process of blowing large balloons, local governments, while providing policy support, are inevitably responsible for the value-added and value-added of state-owned assets. Once they fail to meet the set goals, the enterprises are faced with Subsequent pressure will increase. Contrary to the high-profile domestic enterprises that are climbing and tens of billions of investment, Taiwan-funded enterprises are advancing to the mainland market in a low-key manner. From the perspective of follow-up development, it is difficult to ensure that the current billion-dollar investment projects in China will develop better than the current one-million-dollar project of Taiwan-funded enterprises in the mainland after three to five or ten years. .
Wang Li: The investment boom of LEDs is indeed beneficial to the development of the industry. On the positive side, a large amount of investment will lead to a rapid expansion of the industry scale, which will greatly reduce the cost of products. This will have a positive effect on promoting the expansion of the application of LED products and the mainstreaming of semiconductor lighting. The downside is that if the investment is overheated and the production capacity expands disorderly, it will most likely lead to price wars and ultimately damage the interests of the company. Especially for enterprises with weak technical strength and low product quality, low price will be the only way to enter the market when product supply is greatly increased.
Zheng Tiemin: At present, the fastest expansion in China is the upstream of LED. The reason for this phenomenon is as follows: First, countries around the world attach importance to the development of low-carbon economy, and the semiconductor lighting industry is typical of low-carbon economy. representative. Second, in 2003, the Ministry of Science and Technology led the establishment of the “National Semiconductor Lighting Project Coordination Leading Group†across sectors, regions and industries. In 2005, China launched the "Semiconductor Lighting Engineering Industrialization Technology Development" major project, and the gradual implementation and in-depth development based on the "Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Miles" project greatly promoted the development of semiconductor lighting. Third, the guidance of erroneous data has made politicians and entrepreneurs enthusiastic. "LED epitaxial wafers and chips account for about 70% of the industry's profits, LED packaging accounts for about 10 to 20%, and LED applications account for about 10% to 20%." From the perspective of China, this is a wrong data. According to the survey, the profit of the packaging industry and the application industry is between 3% and 10%. According to the average of 6%, the profit of China's packaging and application in 2009 is about 4.8 billion yuan. In 2009, the total output value of China's epitaxy and chips was only 23 years. Billion yuan, so it is wrong to say that LED epitaxial wafers and chips account for about 70% of the industry's profits. This erroneous data has made people's investments desperately invested in epitaxial wafers and chip upstream industries. Fourth, with the strong support of the government subsidy policy represented by Weifang, Yangzhou, Wuhu, Suzhou and other cities, the government's subsidy policy mostly uses the number of upstream furnaces as the basis for subsidies. Fifth, the chip is currently in short supply.
Liang Bingwen: The overheated investment and expansion of China's LED lighting industry is a terrible signal, which is not good for the healthy development of the industry, but this does not mean that it will be unfavorable to the relevant business owners. A company, if it does not have its own core technology and IP, and does not have any competitive and distinctive products, and expands too quickly, it is very dangerous. Take the current extensions and chips related to MOCVD. At present, our companies rarely have their own core technologies and patents. Many of the processes and technologies involve other people's patents, and the products are not up to grade. In this case, add dozens of devices, I don't know what to do, and when to make money. If large-size LCD backlights and general-purpose lighting are the two major markets or potential markets for the LED industry, our LED epitaxial chip factories cannot provide such products. What do we do with 100 MOCVD? The only thing that can be earned from such an investment is the government's money and resources such as land and the money of immature investors. But the development of the LED lighting industry is quite dangerous.
Author review
Rational + calm
In the recent period, the two chains of the industry chain, upstream chips and downstream applications, of course, including packaging, rapid expansion, new plant production, old factory expansion, traditional industry penetration, the current overheated investment in the LED industry, has undoubtedly existed. Chen Hesheng, president of Anhui Zerun Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. believes that the comprehensive white-hot competition of the upstream, middle and lower reaches will soon come, and the era when everyone is in short supply will surely pass. In the subsequent competitive pressures, high-profile will often turn into a burden, while a low-key and pragmatic enterprise may have a winning advantage. Chen Hesheng’s words are not without reason. The more an industry is concerned, the more the various investments are coming, the more the industry needs rational analysis and calm treatment. LED is in such a period.
Cooperative innovation enhances competitiveness
Innovative entities are in the enterprise. Collaborative development, cooperation and innovation, and accelerate development.
He Kaiwei: "Opinions on the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Energy-Saving Industry" is a programmatic document guiding the development of the industry. In the past, the provincial ministries and commissions have done a lot of work to support the LED industry project, and have achieved certain results, but China's progress in the field of LED technology is not big, the speed is not fast, and even worse than South Korea. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", we must enhance the ability of independent innovation as the core of the transformation of growth. The establishment of an independent innovation system based on enterprises as the mainstay, combining production, study and research is a difficult problem that we have not solved. I think this is not a technical issue, and the system is more important than technology (Wu Jingyu), mainly the reform of institutional mechanisms. It is normal for countries, enterprises, universities, and research institutes to have different perspectives from different perspectives. However, because there are hidden interests behind them, they cannot integrate and form synergy. It is recommended to use the 2007 Nobel Prize for Economics. To design a mechanism to coordinate the interests of all parties and reach a consensus.
Chen Hesheng: In recent years, the market environment and policy environment faced by LED companies are relatively loose. On the level of striving for policy support, on the one hand, it is to avoid the risks of capital and technology that are likely to be brought about by multi-party cooperation. On the other hand, it is also I don't want others to share a piece of food, so I pay more attention to single-handedness. In this way, the industrial chain collaborative development and system innovation that are extremely important for promoting the overall development of the LED industry can be said to be lacking. Fortunately, in the context of increased competition, collaborative development between industry chains has become the pressure of enterprises themselves, which provides the driving force for joint innovation, and will also accelerate the integration development process and standard and system construction process of LED products.
Liang Bingwen: The innovative entity lies in the enterprise, and this policy is correct. However, most of our enterprises have limited strength (except for resource or policy monopoly). Most of them lack long-term vision, do not have strong innovation ability, and face problems such as eating in front of them. In addition, our universities, research institutes and industrial circles are historically "two cars running on the road", and there is no good connection and cooperation basis. In order for our enterprises to have a competitive advantage, it is necessary to do a good job in the cooperation between industry, academia and research to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. In the end, the competitiveness of enterprises is also the competitiveness of the country.
Ye Likang: There are problems in innovation and development in all aspects of the industrial chain, and the packaging process is no exception. Due to the rapid advancement of LED chip technology, the application range of LED is expanding continuously. The application of TV backlight and indoor and outdoor lighting puts higher requirements on the quality of LED products. Various characteristic applications that play the characteristics of LEDs show more space for LED innovation. Both have created conditions for LED companies to take the path of differentiation, and also provide a soil for the continuous innovation of packaging companies. In the face of the market economy, price competition can't be avoided. We must only grow stronger and bigger, continue to expand market share, and increase our own price competitiveness by forming scale and improving efficiency. At the same time, through technology and product innovation, and choose your own blue ocean market, it is possible to avoid the vicious price war and win the market competition.
Lu Hongliang: LED has evolved from an early component to today's light source. It has entered a diversified application period. Any form of packaging and light color requirements should be close to practical applications. China is the world's largest producer of finished lamps. The development of corresponding products for some special lamps is one of the outlets for small and medium-sized packaging enterprises in China. In other words, technological innovation and product innovation can win the market.
Author review
Collaborative development benefit sharing
Collaborative development Collaborative innovation refers to joint innovation between enterprises or enterprises, research institutions, and higher education institutions. "Innovation Theory" was first proposed by American Austrian economist Schumpeter in his book "The Theory of Economic Development" in 1912. He believes that innovation is the introduction of a new combination of factors of production and production conditions into the production system. “Building a new production function†is designed to capture potential profits. It is not difficult to see that cooperation is to obtain greater profits, and entrepreneurs do not have to shun “shame and answerâ€. Liang Bingwen said that the research institute and the industry are historically "two cars running on the road"; He Kailu said that the establishment of an independent innovation system that combines production, study and research with enterprises as the mainstay is a difficult problem that we have not solved. Different roads, the boss is difficult, the core is the issue of interest, when can balance the interests of all parties, reach a consensus, when can truly achieve collaborative development and cooperation and innovation, in order to break through the common development of core technologies.
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