Investment guru Buffett has a famous saying: "I fear when others are greedy, and I am greedy when others are afraid." When the Chinese air-conditioning industry may be experiencing greed, who should fear?
2017 hot triggered new cards countless
The 2017 cold year is a bumper year for China's air-conditioning industry. According to the National Information Center, from August 2016 to June 2017, China's domestic air-conditioning output reached 165 million units, far exceeding the historical level. In the cold year of 2017, China's air-conditioning overall domestic retail market reached 56.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% year-on-year in 2016. Sales increased by 30.5% year-on-year in 2016, setting a record for the highest sales.
Compared with historical data, the 2017 cold year is the year with the highest increase in air-conditioner sales in the past five years. Such a hot air-conditioning market is really a tempting big cake compared to the bleak color TV industry. As a result, Gree and Midea’s new year’s horses are running at full capacity, and Haier and Oaks have increased their capital to build new production lines. The businesses of Shuanglu, Shangling and Handian’s landscapes, Xinyingyan, Yuetu, Yingtian are resurrected. What is even more frightening is that many new brands have emerged in the market. This does not include countless "brand-name" OEMs.
The most vivid statement is the CEO of an air-conditioning brand. He said that he wants to register a new brand. As a result, the brand name you have already registered is already registered! The industry roughly estimates at least 200 air-conditioning brands!
Shouldn't the air conditioner be afraid in 2018?
To analyze the 2018 air-conditioning market, look at the reasons for the popularity of 2017. If these factors continue in 2018, the air-conditioning market will not be bad in 2018. If many positive factors change, the future market uncertainty will be even greater.
Cai Ying, deputy director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, believes that the continuous high temperature weather sweeping most parts of the country, the lag effect of the real estate market last year, the acceleration of urbanization, the penetration rate of mainstream enterprise e-commerce platforms, and the market of Grade IV and below Increased activity is a major factor in the significant growth in the air-conditioning market in the 2017 cold year.
It can be seen from the above that the hot weather in 2017 and the immediate need for real estate are the main reasons for the air-conditioning blowout. In 2018, the weather is getting hotter, but it is still difficult to determine which part of the world is hot. The real estate is affected by regulation and control. Even if there is a demand for housing in the first two years of buying a house in 2018, these two factors are not optimistic.
China's air-conditioning market has always had a contradiction of oversupply. How many tens of thousands of units of capacity have been the focus of the air-conditioning enterprises' bright muscles many years ago. Recently, few big brands have focused on production capacity. Because many companies are not a problem to produce at full capacity, it is a real bull to produce and sell.
In 2018, due to the expansion of new brands and first- and second-line brands, the contradiction between oversupply in the market has become more prominent. In the good market situation, this sharp contradiction is concealed by the "bubble". When the market is not good, this contradiction will be concentrated. At that time, there will be a tragedy in which big brands will crush small brands at all costs in order to seize the market.
Reshuffling is only a matter of time
Ping An Securities believes that the test of small and medium-sized air-conditioning brands is approaching, and shuffling is only a matter of time.
The outbreak of the domestic air-conditioning market in 2016 and 2017 has brought a wealth of external opportunities to small and medium-sized brands. In the past two years, due to the rapid market explosion, small and medium-sized brand products have made up for the shortage of mainstream brands. After 2018, small and medium-sized brands achieved rapid growth in shipment volume through channel-oriented mode. As small and medium-sized brands seek more upside, the competition strategies and sales methods of mainstream brands are also undergoing changes. On the one hand, big brands have strengthened their own channel depth, and their ability to control the bottom and bottom markets of the 4th and 5th levels has been strengthened. On the other hand, mainstream brands will not have the long-term contradiction of capacity shortage in the past year. Continue to pursue terminal orientation, diligent and fast sales, but also moderately expanded the pressure on the channel. In the long run, small and medium-sized air-conditioning brands still have a lot of pressure in the industry competition, and the industry may further concentrate on brand manufacturers.
To sum up: this year's first-line brand is actively expanding production, the second-line brand vows to rush, the third-line brand collects the site, the unnamed brand is courageous!
A foreseeable company, what should be done now is how to minimize business risk, rather than drawing the biggest goal of this year. The survival of the enterprise is related to the interests of each of our dealers. Therefore, both the enterprise and the merchants must have the mentality of being in a thin ice battle. They must not be shot in the middle of the triumph.
A new rule from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) threatens to upend the American hemp industry, and could even result in criminal prosecutions for manufacturers of CBD and delta-8 THC products.
The DEA says the [interim final rule," issued Aug. 20, is simply a matter of adjusting its own regulations to account for changes to the Controlled Substances Act that were mandated by the 2018 Farm Bill (or Agricultural Improvement Act) that legalized hemp and CBD production. The new rule [merely conforms DEA`s regulations to the statutory amendments to the CSA that have already taken effect," says the agency. The new rule doesn`t break any ground, according to the DEA.
But many experts on cannabis and hemp law say the DEA rule creates a potential pathway the law enforcement agency could use to prosecute hemp processors and producers of CBD (cannabidiol) and delta-8 THC (or Δ8THC) products. There are two issues: partially processed CBD, and [synthetically derived" delta-8 THC.
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