The pessimistic moment of the mainland mobile phone market will not be too long, Q2 is expected to turn upwards

According to reports, the beginning of the new year, the mainland's once popular mobile phone industry chain has been falling and falling green. In the context of the overall slowdown in shipments, Apple and other major mobile phone companies continue to cut orders, A-share mobile phone supply chain groups are now greatly adjusted, and the stock prices of mobile phone industry chains such as Anjie Technology and Changying Precision are even showing their waists. According to the research, the decline in sales of smartphones in the second half of last year was structural. Due to the supply chain, many mobile phone companies extended the new products released in the fourth quarter of last year to the first half of this year. It is expected that the market will be prosperous in the first half of this year. Boost, and the second quarter is expected to reproduce the upward turning point.

The pessimistic moment of the mainland mobile phone market will not be too long, Q2 is expected to turn upwards

In the second half of 2017, the decline in mobile phone sales in the mainland market was more obvious. Some A-share mobile phone supply chain companies did not perform as expected. According to information released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the mainland, the number of smartphone shipments in the mainland last year was 461 million, down 11.6% year-on-year; of which, shipments in December were 42.612 million, down 32.5% year-on-year. Wu Lei, vice president of OPPO, said that this has never been seen in the Chinese mobile phone market in the past decade. Compared with Apple's chopping news, the news that the sales volume in the Chinese market, the world's largest mobile phone market, has suddenly declined has intensified market pessimism.

Some mobile phone brand executives said that due to the increasingly fierce competition in the mobile phone market and the rapid concentration of market resources, the Chinese mobile phone market has evolved from the original “inverted triangle” to the “T” pattern. The head brand continues to expand its product line. Shuffle; with the end of the 4G mobile phone exchange, the replacement cycle is extended to 22 months, and the corresponding global average change cycle is 19 months.

According to the 2017 offline sales report released by the data agency, in the sales of major brands in the Chinese market, shipments of Apple and Huawei remained stable and fluctuating. Xiaomi bottomed out, and shipments of most other brands showed a downward trend. Among them, the sales volume of OPPO and vivo has spiraled down in the offline market last year. In January, the sales of the two companies were about 8.1 million and 7.1 million respectively, but they have fallen to 5.7 million and 5.2 million respectively in December. , which fell by about 29% and 27% respectively. Jin Li, who suffered from the capital chain problem, lost about 31% of its offline sales in December last year, and Meizu fell about 47% over the same period.

Is there a turning point in the smartphone growth cycle? Corporate and industry analysts remain optimistic. Yan Zhanmeng, a senior analyst at market research firm Counterpoint, said that the decline in this round of mobile phone market is mainly due to the fact that the Chinese market experienced a peak in the high-speed growth market in 2016, which was formed by natural reversal. It is expected that mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market will be in the second quarter of 2017. Starting the back file, the actual decline was in the second half of the year, basically in line with expectations.

Some brokerage analysts said that in the first quarter of this year, the mobile phone supply chain was affected by the chopping factors of Apple and mainland domestic brands, and the overall slowdown in the mobile phone market and the negative sentiment of some companies’ capital chains triggered the previous acquisition. Lifeng's thick investors left the market, and the concept stocks entered a pessimistic moment as a whole. However, this kind of pessimism is expected to change in the second quarter. The new smartphones will be released in the second quarter of this year. In addition, Apple has a lot of moves in the second half of the year. It is expected that the industry will have an upward turning point in the second quarter.

For the overall trend of the market in 2018, a number of listed companies also expressed optimism. Mobile phone ODM company executives said that there was a structural factor in the decline in mobile phone sales at the end of last year. A large number of new products will be released in the fourth quarter of last year. However, due to supply chain and other reasons, new models equipped with new technologies are postponed until 2018. It is released in half a year, so the first half of 2018 will be the opposite of the normal state, and a large number of new products will be released. It is expected that the mobile phone industry in the first half of the year will show a “low season”. In addition, Chinese mobile phone brands will enter the overseas market in 2018, and it is expected to boost the mobile phone industry chain.

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