It’s hard to get into the sky, and Elon Musk perfectly interprets this sentence. On the one hand, SpaceX successfully launched, the infinite glory brought by human beings' dreams of interstellar immigration into reality, and the other side was the bankruptcy crisis caused by Tesla's mass production bottleneck and fatal accident. However, as the holder of both, Musk seems to be no stranger to this. The same situation has been staged as early as 2008, the financing gap, Roadster car delayed listing. Fortunately, Musk received $40 million in financing at the last minute, and he himself contributed $20 million from his own pocket. This time, can Tesla continue to write the myth of nine deaths?
The wind and water turned, and Tesla did not retreat. As of 5 pm local time in New York on Tuesday, Tesla's unsecured bond price fell 3.5 cents, setting a record low of 89 cents. The stock price also fell sharply by 8.2%, hitting a new low in the past year. A smashing stock bond double-kill directly pushed the former Wall Street darling star stocks to the brink of bankruptcy.
The storm was caused by Moody's flapping. On the same day, Moody's downgraded Tesla's credit rating and shifted its outlook from stable to negative, citing the severe shortage of Tesla Model 3 production and the company's financial situation.
Mass production is Tesla's "breathing pain." Tesla plans to reach the goal of producing 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of last year, but has since postponed the target for half a year. In August last year, Tesla raised $1.8 billion through the bond issue to fund the accelerated production of Model 3. However, the goal of mass production is still in the foreseeable future. John Thompson, chief investment officer and hedge fund manager of Vilas Capital Management, predicts that Tesla will go bankrupt in the next 3-6 months.
Thompson made such predictions in many ways, including insufficient capacity to deliver the Model 3 on time, the market demand for Model S and X began to decline, there was no way to get a large amount of money in the short term, and the supplier may be downgraded by Moody's rating. Will require cash on delivery, and the market's preference for risk, and even suspected accounting fraud.
Real opponentIn addition to mass production, Tesla has deeper problems. Previously, the media questioned Tesla's funding sources. They thought that Musk's solution to the financial difficulties was somewhat unusual: mortgage shares, loans to banks, then repurchase company stocks with loans, buy corporate bonds, and use a company's money to support The development of another company.
Market concerns are not unreasonable, and problems in either side of the capital chain can have a ripple effect. In 2002, Musk took over $165 million in PayPal shares, and he used the money to support the development of SolarCity, SpaceX and Tesla. At the end of 2008, Tesla had a financial crisis. At about the same time, SpaceX was also in a hurry because of the development of rocket business.
The practice of Musk and the doubts about Tesla’s financial situation have caught the attention of the US government. It is understood that the US Securities and Exchange Commission has sent a total of 85 documents to Tesla in the past five years, asking Tesla to disclose more financial information. In the same period of time, another American car company Ford did not receive a copy, which makes people have reason to believe that Tesla has been testing on the verge of breaking the law.
This contrast also touches out the real opponents that Tesla is currently facing. If mass production and capital are Tesla's 990, then the old car manufacturer is likely to be Tesla's 81st difficulty. Last year, Ford sold a total of 6 million cars, with a profit of 7.6 billion. On the contrary, Tesla sold only 100,000 cars and lost $2.2 billion.
There is also GM standing in the enemy camp of Tesla. In January of this year, GM filed an application with the Federal Transportation Administration to launch a mass-produced driverless car in 2019, which will be the first mass-produced driverless car in the United States. The GM approach not only broke into the unmanned vehicle field of Tesla's signature, but also directly poked Tesla's pain point as a promise.
Ms. MuskThere is no money to save money in the dictionary of the rich family Gossla. According to statistics, Tesla has burned an average of $8,000 per minute in the past 12 months. The mass production of food and the loss of funds not only brought trouble to the owners of the reservation, but also caused tremendous pressure on Tesla. For Tesla, the mass production target can not be achieved, the pressure to solve the capital will face debt financing or equity financing, and the result of the promise that is constantly difficult to fulfill is the confidence of overdraft investors, such a vicious circle.
If the same situation occurs in an ordinary company, this may be considered to be difficult to return. But don't forget that Tesla's owner is a legend. Investors are still willing to pay for Tesla shares because they are believers in Musk. Last September, Tesla Model 3 delivered only 14.7% of the target, but its order volume is still 500,000. Even if negative news emerges endlessly, Tesla's market value is still twice that of the old Ford.
In addition to feelings, what people are more likely to overlook is its ability to finance. An example of Tesla's successful financing of profitable opportunities dates back to 2014. At that time, in order to invest $5 billion to build a battery factory, Tesla successfully raised $2 billion through convertible bonds. This was the largest convertible bond financing activity at the time. Moreover, it happens when the investor's choice of new convertible bonds is relatively small. This practice was once followed by Twitter, AOL and Priceline, the largest travel company in the United States.
Musk is more than enough in the capital market. In addition to a series of subjective factors, there are also objective facts that Tesla has not entered the life and death passage, and this magic weapon to save Tesla is in China. According to the latest financial report, Tesla's global revenue growth in 2017 reached nearly 12 billion US dollars, with a growth rate of over 67%. Among them, the Chinese market is particularly outstanding, with an increase of more than 90% compared with 2016, becoming Tesla's fastest growing global market.
Yan Jinghui, deputy general manager of Beijing Asian Games Village Auto Trading Market, believes that Tesla’s bankruptcy is too early. For purely electric vehicles, technology research and development is in the climbing stage, and the problem of insufficient mass production is a normal phenomenon. And for Tesla, the halo effect gives investors some confidence in it, and investors have a certain psychological preparation when they choose it. More importantly, China's current emphasis on new energy vehicles has also made China a new and important market for Tesla.
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