Market demand expands LED overcapacity and livelihood

[Source: Gaogong LED's "LED Research Review" magazine May issue Reporter / Zhao Hui] "After the opening year, our orders are basically saturated, and now the production line simply can not keep up with the demand for orders." Shenzhen Dechen Photoelectric Liu Hongchuan, general manager of Science and Technology Co., Ltd. told the reporter of "High-tech LED".

On April 3, G20-LED Summit member Hongli Optoelectronics (SZ.300219) released the "2013 First Quarter Results Forecast". According to the announcement, Hongli Optoelectronics achieved a total operating income of 121.4035 million yuan -14,347,800 yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 10%-30% over the same period of the previous year.

Ding Feng, deputy general manager of Hongli Optoelectronics, said at the CMO meeting of the G20-LED Summit that the company started well in 2013, especially the sales of small and medium power package devices are optimistic.

Last year, the backlighting device was positive, and the G20-LED Summit member company Ruifeng Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. (SZ.300241), which was ranked top in the profit performance, announced that its first quarter 2013 revenue reached 120,091,300 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62% and a net profit of 8,558,800 yuan. It increased by 71.85% year-on-year.

Another packaged company, Guoxing Optoelectronics (SZ.002449) released the first quarter 2013 results forecast, due to the increase in sales revenue and gross profit margin, the company's revenue in the first quarter of this year increased by 0% compared with the previous year - 10%.

Recently, the industry generally believes that this year will be a year of explosive growth in the LED lighting industry. LED lighting products are gradually maturing, and their cost performance is getting higher and higher. Consumers' understanding and confidence in LEDs is constantly increasing. At the same time, the difference between the production cost of LED lighting products and the price of traditional lighting products has reached a reasonable critical level acceptable to consumers, and market demand has expanded dramatically.

The outbreak of demand for downstream applications may have a short-lived opportunity for midstream packaging and upstream epitaxial chip companies that have suffered from overcapacity last year.

Lighting white light device production and sales boom

“Packaging orders in the first few months of this year have already made our production line fully operational, mainly due to the increasing demand for downstream applications in the domestic market.” Luo Jing, vice president of marketing for Zhejiang Zhongzhou Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., said that since the beginning of this year, traditional lighting Enterprises have increased the transformation of LED, including NVC, Hongyan, Delixi and other companies have put a lot of big orders to the packaging factory.

In terms of foreign markets, Luo Jing said that due to the influence of the World Cup in Brazil, the South American market is constantly increasing this year.

In the midstream market, Philips Lumileds has a steady stream of orders this year. Zhou Xuejun, the company's Asian marketing director, said that the second plant in Penang, Malaysia, had started construction last year, but the orders on hand are still too busy.

Affected by the fullness of orders, some packaging manufacturers have also begun to select customers, giving priority to orders with timely payment and high gross profit. “In the next step, we will also eliminate some customers in a targeted manner. The key choice is that the lighting market may have reached a critical stage of transition from policy support to market acceptance. Short-term order saturation can not determine whether the industry is out of the haze. Performance. Some orders with high gross profit margins are made.” Liu Hongchuan said that the package gross profit dropped too fast last year, and this year’s downward trend may slow down.

High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII) statistics show that as of the end of 2012, the main products of indoor lighting, such as LED fluorescent tubes, LED downlights, LED panel lights, have more than 30% of product selection 2835, 5630, 3030, etc. Medium power products are used as light sources, and this proportion is expected to increase rapidly in 2013.

The data shows that the average price of China's LED lighting white-light packaged devices fell by more than 30% in 2012. The rapid decline in the price of packaged devices has prompted packaging companies to develop products with high profit margins and strong demand in the application field. For example, in 2835, the power products are favored by application companies with high luminous efficiency and high cost performance. Their gross profit margin exceeds 30%, which has become a new profit growth point for packaging companies.

Deng Shoutie, deputy general manager and director of Hongli Optoelectronics, said that from the market performance in the first quarter, the price of LED lamps has dropped by about 10%, and the demand for lighting has rebounded remarkably, which has directly driven the production and sales of packaging factories. "It is estimated that by June, the monthly production capacity of Hongli Optoelectronics will increase from 600kk to 800-900kk."

Recently, there are more rumors that Dehao Runda will build 500 LED packaging production lines. The once-disrupted NVC Lighting (02222.HK) and Ruifeng Optoelectronics joint venture project has also recently reported news of the upcoming resurrection. On January 11, 2012, NVC Lighting and Ruifeng Optoelectronics signed a cooperation agreement to jointly invest 50 million yuan to set up a joint venture company in Huizhou to engage in LED packaging technology research and development and LED packaging product manufacturing and sales of high-power lighting. Among them, NVC Lighting accounted for 49%, Ruifeng Optoelectronics held 51%. The project was temporarily suspended due to changes in NVC's top management.

"Although from the current point of view, the orders of packaging companies are relatively saturated, but it can not be said that the packaging industry has completely emerged from the predicament of last year. The specific situation depends on whether the current situation can be continued in the following months." Luo Jing said.

The recovery of the packaging industry will drive the upstream market out of the downturn last year.

Sanan Optoelectronics (SH.600703) recently released a quarterly report showing that the company's first quarter revenue reached 629 million yuan, an increase of 23.3%.

"At present, our chip production capacity has been saturated, and the supply of products is in short supply." Jingyuan Baochen marketing department told the "High-tech LED" reporter.

“There are more customers signing long orders, and the supply and demand situation has improved.” Guo Yuebo, director of Tiantong’s stock market, said that since the beginning of the year, orders have improved, and customer orders have increased. Sales and prices are expected to rise in the next three months.

According to Guo Yuebo, the price of the sapphire crystal rod used to prepare the 2-inch substrate has also increased slightly, which has slightly increased from the original 2.8-2.9 yuan/mm to the current 3.1-3.2 yuan/mm. This is the first time that the price of the upstream ingot has fallen since the sapphire substrate dropped from the high of $30 to $7.

Lighting demand exceeds expectations

"The development speed of LED lighting industry exceeds our expectations. The development of Jiamei LED lighting business has exceeded our own expectations." Zhou Shuiming, general manager of Foshan Jiamei Times Lighting Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jiamei"), a member of G20-LED Summit, said In 2012, the company's LED lighting sales reached 150 million yuan, accounting for 35% of the overall lighting revenue, an increase of 163.16%.

When the price of LED lighting is only 15%-20% higher than traditional lighting, the market conditions will be transitioned from policy support to the natural acceptance stage of the market, and now the time has come. “Jiamei has now started to promote LED lighting products in the market.” Zhou Shuiming expects that the company’s LED business will double its revenue this year, reaching 280 million yuan.

LED experienced the investment boom in 2010, and the overcapacity caused the entire LED industry to enter the shuffling stage in advance. After two years of long winter, it was not until the second half of 2012 that it gradually became rational. Along with the introduction of the national favorable policies, the wave of LED lighting promotion has been repeated. As the price of LED lighting terminals continues to fall, LED lighting will naturally transition from policy-led to market demand.

Recently, the website of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology released the tender for street lamps in the first quarter of 2013. According to statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the number of street lamps and tunnel lights in Guangdong Province has reached 76,000 baht, exceeding the total amount of tenders for the whole year of 2012 of 75,000 baht.

A recent statistical report from the Fujian Inspection and Quarantine Bureau showed that in the first quarter, Fujian exported 309 batches of LED lamps, totaling 16.174 million US dollars, an increase of 27.7% and 136%.

GLII believes that with the implementation of the EU comprehensive incandescent prohibition order, LED lighting applications have entered a substantive stage. Under the promotion of government projects, domestic commercial lighting and home lighting are expected to accelerate penetration.

“Before the industry expected the market to break out in 2015, I feel that it is conservative, and it is ahead of 2013.” Zhang Chao, director of the lighting division of Mulinsen Co., Ltd., is very optimistic about the performance of the LED lighting market this year.

In addition to market performance exceeding industry expectations, this year the government's support policy for the LED lighting industry has refined the details of the promotion of LED lighting applications.

In February of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other six ministries jointly issued the "Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Plan." The plan proposes that the output value of LED lighting energy-saving industry will increase by about 30% annually, reaching 450 billion yuan in 2015 (including 180 billion yuan for LED lighting applications).

The plan also includes the gradual promotion of LED lighting products with mature application technologies and obvious energy-saving effects, giving priority to the promotion of indoor commercial lighting products and systems, actively promoting outdoor public lighting products and systems, promoting home lighting products in a timely manner, and actively supporting the fields of automobiles, agriculture, and medical care. Innovative applications.

At the same time, the plan will gradually increase the financial subsidies for the promotion of LED lighting products. In the fields of commercial lighting, industrial lighting, government office, public lighting, etc., we will focus on the demonstration application and promotion of indoor lighting products and systems such as LED downlights and spotlights, and timely enter the field of home lighting. In the field of outdoor lighting, focus on the demonstration applications of LED tunnel lights, street lights and other products and systems. Bulbs were also included in the subsidy for the first time.

Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, CEO of Gaogong LED, said that since February of this year, the signs of LED lighting market are already very obvious. It is expected that there will be a full-scale outbreak in the second and third quarters. As for the reason for the market recovery, on the one hand, the acceptance of LED lighting in the global market has increased, and the demand for export has shown rapid growth; on the other hand, the domestic commercial lighting market has begun to apply LED lighting products, and at the same time, the public lighting market continues to push.

With the support of subsidies at the policy level, coupled with the continuous improvement in the cost performance of LED lighting products, the market demand for LED lighting is gradually increasing, and will undoubtedly be gradually transmitted to the entire LED industry chain.

But now it seems that when the overcapacity in the upstream is completely solved, everything has yet to be verified by time.

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