For the first time, BYD has given the timetable for the independent listing of power batteries. On March 31, Shen Yan, Deputy General Manager of BYD Lithium Battery Division, said in the 2018 Pearl River Delta Future Automotive Supply Chain Innovation Forum that BYD is doing the power stripping business. It is expected that it will be completed by the end of 2018 or early 2019. 2022-2023, BYD's power battery company will be listed independently. Some industry insiders believe that BYD's battery business was surpassed and slipped by the Ningde era, which has already started the IPO. BYD wants to split the battery business and market it independently. This will provide BYD with a missing strategic opportunity, and the scale is also a dilution of costs. Apportionment of risk means.
Loss of industry first
In fact, BYD, which started with batteries, has served as the world’s largest rechargeable battery maker for many years, and has the world’s largest shipments of nickel-cadmium batteries and mobile lithium batteries. In 2017, BYD’s business revenue increased by 19.37% year-on-year, accounting for 8.28% of total revenue.
However, in the domestic lithium battery business market, although BYD's battery business was earlier than the Ningde era, its closed system allowed the latter to rapidly occupy the market. Lithium-ion battery shipments exceeded the Ningde era in 2017.
Data show that as of the end of 2017, BYD battery production capacity reached 16Gwh, including three yuan battery capacity 6Gwh, lithium iron phosphate battery capacity 10Gwh, is expected to expand 10Gwh Sanyuan battery capacity in Qinghai in 2018. As the power battery is mainly used for its own new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of BYD's power batteries in 2017 was only 5.43Gwh, which was behind the Ningde era when it ranked first and had 10.4Ghh installed capacity.
It is worth noting that the Ningde era not only became a unicorn in the field of new energy vehicles, but also intended to land on the capital market. The data shows that Ningde era achieved operating revenue of 19.997 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of over 34% year-on-year; net profit of 3.972 billion yuan, an increase of 31.4%. From the perspective of revenue, the battery business of Ningde Times has far more revenue than BYD.
The performance report released by BYD on March 27 shows that in 2017, it achieved revenue of 105.915 billion yuan, an increase of 2.36% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.066 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.51% over the same period of last year. . Among them, the decline in new energy subsidies and sales of fuel vehicles is the main reason for the decline in net profit. Affected by this, in the first quarter of 2018, although the sales of new energy vehicles have nearly tripled compared to the same period of last year, it is expected that net profit will still fall by 75.24%-91.75%. BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu said that BYD is actively taking corresponding countermeasures and doing some appropriate financial arrangements to make up for the impact of reduced subsidies.
“The subsidy for new energy vehicles will have the greatest impact on the profitability of electric buses. Each subsidy for pure electric buses will fall by 135,000 yuan, which will have a relatively large impact on the profitability of BYD's new energy auto business,†said BYD. At present, the adjusted new energy vehicle subsidy policy has a negative effect on the profitability of BYD's various new energy models.
Jia Xinguang, an automotive analyst, believes that since the vertical integration bonus of the electric vehicle industry began to decline, BYD splits its battery business and independently listed. It does not rule out the intention of competing with the Ningde era, and it can also be considered as a strategic opportunity for the company to make up for the lack of replacement. On the other hand, scale is also a means of greatly diluting costs and apportioning risks.
Open supply chain closed loop
It is worth noting that BYD's parts and components system has been relatively closed. The self-produced battery system has allowed BYD to save a lot of construction costs.
However, when BYD made its own products for its own use, the lithium-ion battery maker Ningde era has seen rapid development in its business, which has had a profound impact on the national market and has gradually expanded its business scope. In addition to the cooperation with more than a dozen companies including Geely and BMW, the Ningde Times also joined hands with SAIC Group to develop a power battery business. In addition, the Ningde era has almost won battery cooperation with new car manufacturers such as Weilai Automobile and Weimar Automobile. BYD's battery-powered models are 78 models, and the number of suppliers is only two, while Ningde Power Battery Co., Ltd. has 390 models and 64 vehicle manufacturers.
According to the "New Energy Automobile Industry Chain Data" released by GGII recently, in October 2017, the total number of installed battery power of new energy vehicles ranked top in the total number of battery installed capacity in the Ningde Times with 21,577 sets, and BYD. It ranked second with 9,581. The two companies, BYD and Ningde, divided up about 44% of the national market share. The Ningde era accounted for 29% of the total installed capacity. Due to the limitation of the self-produced and self-sale model, the gap between the total number of battery-powered BYD's and the Ningde era is gradually widening.
Since the beginning of this year, BYD has broken the development bottleneck, and news of the opening of power batteries will continue to spread. Wang Chuanfu stated at the 2017 performance announcement that the company began to market the components industry from last year and plans to implement a marketization strategy within the company first. At the same time, it plans to promote the separate listing of various parts and components. It is expected that BYD will launch the marketization of its parts and components industry based on business conditions and policies and regulations in the coming years. This is also considered by the industry as a signal that BYD's battery will be open to other OEMs.
Prior to this, BYD responded to investors' questions by saying that as the battery capacity continues to expand, the company will promote the development of the battery business through external sales and improve the company's profitability. To this end, BYD has already connected the major battery OEMs of the Great Wall, Beijing Automotive, Guangzhou Automobile, etc. with respect to the power battery business, and it is expected that some batteries will be sold externally as soon as 2018.
However, according to Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, BYD's power battery business will have a certain degree of competitiveness in the market, but cooperation with OEMs will also require a certain process. From certification to product development, at least two For three years, this coincides with the timing of the separate listing of BYD Power Battery.
Power battery market has great potential
According to the national “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†development plan, by 2020, new energy vehicles will achieve more than 2 million units of production and sales, and the cumulative production and sales will exceed 5 million. The rapid growth in demand for power batteries in the future market will be difficult to change. The demand for power batteries will be on the scale of 100 billion.
The famous economist Song Qinghui said that BYD chose to liberalize its power battery business and cooperate with foreign companies, occupying the high point of the game rules of the power battery market. For BYD power batteries, the reserve and release of power batteries will find dual advantages in terms of time and products. It is no doubt that BYD has found an opportunity to share a huge profit cake.
It is understood that power battery as one of the core components of new energy vehicles, in recent years continue to attract new entrants to participate in competition through direct investment, industrial restructuring or mergers and acquisitions, etc., while the existing power battery companies have also expanded capacity. The Ningde Times prospectus stated that Ningde Times had 22 holding subsidiaries, 9 subsidiaries and one branch company. Among them, a number of joint-stock subsidiaries have been set up in cooperation with other industry leaders, including SAIC, Foton Motor, Changan Automobile, FAW Group, and Beijing Automotive Group.
At the same time, after Jinshajiang Capital acquired Nissan Battery under Nissan in August last year, it invested in the construction of a Chinese headquarters and production base for Nissan Battery in China. The total investment is as high as RMB 12.5 billion, and the battery base settled in Zhenjiang New Area can reach 20GWh after it is put into production. Lithium battery capacity.
According to Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Association of Travel Unions, BYD and Ningde are leading companies in the power battery industry and have strong technical and scale advantages. With the increasing pressure of market competition and the continuous improvement of customer demand, the future power battery Market development will face increased competition and integration risks.
Data show that in 2017, the total installed capacity of the top ten power battery companies totaled 26.81GWh, accounting for 74% of the total battery companies. The characteristics of the survival of the fittest in the industry are very significant.
The liberalization of BYD's power battery business is just the beginning of industry consolidation. Through the expansion of capacity and mergers and acquisitions, driven by the implementation of the double-point system, the new energy subsidies, the upgrading of power battery technology and other factors, 2018 is considered to be the driving force. The watershed of the battery industry.
Cui Dongshu said that the resources of the power battery industry will become more concentrated now. The return of foreign power batteries is expected to set off another round of competitive climax in the domestic power battery industry. Under the pressure of lowering the cost of the entire industrial chain from raw materials to power battery vehicle supply chains, SMEs' pressure capacity is much lower than that of large enterprises, and companies that do not have the price and technological advantages are bound to go out.
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