Guosen Securities: grasping the context of the fourth industrial revolution


The emerging industry plan of Hexun stock news countries will accelerate the development of emerging industries

On September 8, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the State Council executive meeting to review and approve in principle the "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries." Before the end of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to introduce a series of emerging industry support policies, and the upcoming "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will take the development of emerging industries as an important content. These policies will become the driving force for the development of emerging industries, and this year and even A very important policy orientation for the next few years. The growth rate of emerging industries is inevitably higher than that of traditional industries. The most dynamic and most promising listed companies in the future economy must come from emerging industries. At present, we have entered the fourth period of industrial technology revolution. These emerging industries will promote humanity into a new stage of green development.

Emerging industries have risen to the national strategic level, and industry action has become the selection criteria.

Different from the scattered and isolated support policies in the past, our government has been deeply aware of the importance of emerging industries and has raised them to the national strategic level. The country's specific development plan for strategic emerging industries is gradually getting closer, and the government will choose to support the industry with huge market potential and a huge driving role in the industry as a strategic emerging industry. We believe that we should grasp the investment path from the perspective of the sufficient degree of technical and industrial readiness and the elasticity of demand under the stimulus of the policy. Therefore, we are optimistic about the industry in the outbreak period and the industry that breaks through the foreign monopoly to achieve import substitution.

Optimistic about emerging industries in which the industry is or will soon face an outbreak

At present, the state proposes that the development of seven emerging industries is at different stages. Some industries have undergone pre-technical and industrial preparations, and downstream demand will grow substantially under the stimulus of policies. The industry has the potential for explosive growth. Among them, nuclear power will usher in the peak period of construction in the next few years; the smart grid is about to enter the stage of comprehensive construction, which will drive the growth of grid investment, and the proportion of intelligent investment in grid investment will also double; the integration of the three networks has entered the pilot stage; Entering the substantive promotion stage; the power battery will also usher in the opportunity under the new energy vehicle incentive policy; the demand for backlights in the downstream of the LED industry will grow strongly, and once universal lighting is popular, it will become an industry that will break through one trillion yuan in the future.

Optimistic about technology breakthroughs in foreign monopolies, replacing imported emerging industries

We are also optimistic about the industry's desire to break through the foreign monopoly that is expected to complete import substitution. The market demand in such industries has matured. The bottleneck of the substitution effect lies mainly in technology accumulation and market recognition. Once the technology has achieved breakthroughs and obtained corresponding certification, the demand for imported products will be greatly squeezed out under the policy push.

Among them, while biomedicine enjoys the opportunity of new medical reform development, it will also welcome the industrial transfer of a new round of finished medicines that will be formed after the patent drugs will expire. In terms of liquid crystal display, relevant domestic listed companies will break through the technical bottleneck; satellite industry On the other hand, the completion of the Beidou II and Beidou satellites will become one of the four major navigation systems in the world; the large aircraft project will break the dual monopoly and become a strong competitor of Boeing and Airbus, and will be 1: The ratio of more than 10 drives the development of relevant national economic industries.

(Guoxin Securities)

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