According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November, production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were completed at 639,000 and 609,000 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 49.7% and 51.4% respectively year-on-year. Corresponding to the rapid growth in the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles, the demand for power batteries also continues to increase. However, a reporter from China Automotive News learned that the supply of raw materials for the battery industry has not kept pace with the development of the industry. Recently, the 5th China (Guangdong-Shantou) International Forum on Lithium New Energy Industry was held in Shantou. While several guests analyzed the future prospects for the development of new energy vehicles and power battery industry, they also proposed the raw materials of power batteries, copper foil and separators. There has been an imbalance between supply and demand. In a relatively long period of time, there is a large gap in the demand for copper foil, and the market for battery separators has become saturated. However, the new production capacity is still expanding. There may be losses in the entire industry next year.
â– Lithium copper foil material gap is larger
In lithium batteries, copper foil is not only the carrier of the negative electrode active material but also the collection and transmission body of the electron current of the negative electrode. The importance of the copper foil is self-evident. In order to ensure the performance of the power battery, the copper foil of the battery has higher requirements of tensile strength, elongation, compactness, surface roughness and thickness uniformity. The demand is high and production capacity is limited. Chen Yuxi, vice president of Nordic Investment Co., Ltd., said: "The rapid development of new energy vehicles has led to a sharp increase in the demand for lithium battery copper foil and a large gap in copper foil production capacity."
It is reported that in 2015, the global supply of lithium battery copper foil was 90,000 tons, the demand was 91,000 tons, and the gap ratio was 1%; in 2016, the supply was 105,000 tons, and the gap proportion was expanded to 3%; the 2017 supply was It is expected to be 110,000 tons, and the gap ratio will further expand to 8%. In China, the growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles has driven the growth of copper foil production capacity. In 2015, copper foil production capacity was 59,000 tons, which was 19.1% higher than the previous year. However, the increased production capacity still cannot meet the demand of the lithium battery industry. “The demand for porous copper foils with a thickness of less than 6 μm during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will increase further,†said Chen Yuxi.
It is predicted that by 2018, the supply of lithium battery copper foil will be 146,000 tons, and the demand will be 161,000 tons. The gap will further expand. After 2019, the supply imbalance will ease, but there is still a gap of 2% to 3% this year. In addition, the increase in copper prices coupled with the increase in demand for power batteries for copper foil has led to a significant increase in copper foil prices.
â– In 2018, diaphragm industry or comprehensive loss
Contrary to the shortage of copper foil materials, the separator of another raw material of lithium batteries has exceeded the demand. In lithium batteries, the separator is one of the key inner components, and its requirements are also very high. It must not only resist the corrosion of organic solvents, but also maintain the permeability to allow ions to pass through smoothly, and also resist the high temperature generated by the electrochemical. However, diaphragm production capacity has not been constrained. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the global battery separator production line is rapidly expanding and there has been a situation of excess capacity.
Sun Dongquan, Secretary General of the China Plastics Association Battery Diaphragms Committee, said: “In 2016, the global production capacity of lithium battery separators was 4.2 billion square meters, and the demand was 3.5 billion square meters. Only China’s demand reached 2 billion square meters. But in the same period, China The output of domestic diaphragms is about 1.2 billion square meters, which has led to severe reliance on imports from China's diaphragm industry.†However, Sun Dongquan further pointed out that diaphragms have a large amount of imports and there is a large space for substitution of domestic products. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles in China, a large number of Investment began to enter the lithium battery separator industry, and the pace of construction of the diaphragm industry production line is also accelerating.
It is reported that in March 2017, more than 10 Chinese companies planned to add more than 40 membrane production lines with a production capacity of more than 1 billion square meters. Since March, there have been many new builders, such as Shenzhen Xingyuan Materials will build 6 production lines with a production capacity of 300 million square meters; Shanghai Enjie will invest 5.5 billion yuan to produce battery separators; The production line will be put into operation. By June 2018, the production line will reach 20, with a production capacity of over 2 billion square meters. The Peking University will invest 20 production lines with a production capacity of over 1 billion square meters. Hubei Jiangsheng will invest in 4 production lines with a production capacity of over 200 million square meters. . “As of the end of October 2017, there have been more than 120 new production lines that have been publicly announced throughout the country,†said Sun Dongquan.
Sun Dongquan predicts: “In 2018, there are an estimated 20 companies that intend to enter the lithium battery separator industry. By that time, the national lithium battery separator production capacity will reach 8 billion square meters. In 2018, the lithium battery separator industry may suffer a total loss.â€
â– The diaphragm industry receives the largest impact from subsidies
Recently, the rumors of the early retreat of new energy vehicle subsidies in 2018 caused many battery companies to worry. A person in the battery industry told the “China Automotive News†reporter that subsidies fall ahead, the entire vehicle company must require battery companies to reduce the supply price, in the battery material, there is a large gap in the lithium battery copper foil material, positive and negative materials With a large amount of imports, the space for cost reduction is limited, and the diaphragm industry may be the most affected area.
Sun Dongquan said: "The rumors of subsidy falling ahead of time have prompted many diaphragm manufacturers to readjust their production processes. Among them, the dry process has been valued by more and more companies."
It is understood that the diaphragm production process is divided into dry and wet methods. The dry diaphragm consists of PP/PE/PP three-layer material with high safety, and PP (polypropylene) material has strong oxidation resistance. In general, the process steps of the dry diaphragm are simple and the production cost is low, but the dry process cannot solve the problem of low diaphragm strength, and the closed hole rate is not as good as the wet process. The separator produced by the wet process has a low pore-melting PE (polyethylene) layer with a small pore diameter to facilitate closed-cells, a high-melting-point PE layer with a large pore size facilitates lithium ion transport, and the separator can be made thin, which is more suitable for high energy density batteries. However, the wet process produces more steps and costs more.
The problems faced by the diaphragm industry have already attracted the attention of the China Plastics Association Battery Separator Committee. Sun Dongquan said: “From May this year, the special committee has issued warnings that more than 10 companies have given up their investment in the lithium battery separator industry. There are also many companies that originally intended to enter the diaphragm production field and gradually become more rational under our advice.The lithium battery separator industry will need to work hard to improve production efficiency and product quality, reduce costs, and control risks, rather than capacity expansion. ."
Some experts said that although new energy vehicles are the future direction of the industry, not every sub-sector is a blue ocean, and companies need to recognize the development of the industry.
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