In 2014, as the main construction period of 4G network, the performance of related listed companies will be reflected. According to China Mobile's plan, at the end of 2014, the total number of base stations exceeded 500,000. According to China Mobile's plan, at the end of 2014, the total number of base stations exceeded 500,000. Wang Yunhui, the chief editor of the Financial Weekly, has questioned this. He recently mentioned: This is an ambitious plan. It is said that many analysts and industry insiders have taken a breather when they heard the plan announced by China Mobile. This is far beyond their expectations.
How to understand this data?
In 2010, the total number of GSM base stations in the United States was less than 300,000. From 2007, China Mobile launched TD-SCDMA commercial trials. By August 2013, the total number of TD-SCDMA base stations was only 390,000 in more than six years. The China Mobile plan is to build about 200,000 TD-LTE base stations nationwide by the end of 2013.
According to the data disclosed by China Mobile's high-level public, in 2014, China Mobile's total number of TD-SCDMA base stations will increase by at least 60,000.
That is to say, in 2014, China Mobile needs to build at least 360,000 base stations in 2014. But what about the real numbers? In mid-December, there were media reports that about half of the 200,000 base stations could not be completed.
After the 4G license was put on December 4th, ZTE, Fiberhome Communications, Fuchun Communications and Huaxing Venture 4G concept stocks fell, which also reflected that the performance of 4G equipment vendors was not ideal. There was no performance to support the stock price, and it was a bit high! The valuation is too high, and even in the case of good cash, there will be institutions fleeing. Looking at the trend of individual stocks, the year-to-date, Datang Telecom's gains have nearly doubled, and the interest in the restructuring concept has risen more than four times. Some investment bank analysts believe that there are a large number of funds in the market in the 4G concept, in order to pull up the stock price, some people are repeatedly releasing news. So far, the 4G concept has risen sharply for several consecutive rounds. This increase has included and even overdrafted the expectations of the capital market for the performance of such companies in the coming years.
2014 will be a year to truly test the performance of equipment manufacturers. In 2014, relying solely on 4G expectations has not been able to push up the valuation of equipment vendors. Performance cashing + “new expectations†will be a necessary condition for stock price performance. Regarding China Mobile’s “Base Station Accelerated Methodâ€, we will wait and see how much the equipment supplier’s performance in 2014 can be improved!
In the short-term, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently launched the establishment of a national demonstration project for information consumption, and determined that 68 cities including Beijing are the first pilot cities for national information consumption, focusing on building information infrastructure such as broadband and td-lte. The construction of the second batch of pilot cities for information consumption will be launched next year. In the A-share market, related stocks such as the communication equipment sector, 4G concept, and ipv6 concept are worthy of attention.
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